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​​Marc Nuttle's blog includes samples of the Nuttle Report as well as regular updates.

“Father Joe” Versus “Winston Trump”

8/25/2020

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Volume 8, Issue 34

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The public’s tightrope walk in the political circus
​The Grand Old Party opened its virtual national convention last night to complete “the start of the final scene” of the 2020 Presidential election season. The theme of the first night was that Democrats are intent on destroying America and changing our country’s way of life as we know it. President Trump and the party spokesmen called for policy to protect the cultural mores of social stability enmeshed in our societal fabric.
 
The national news outlets described the atmosphere of the tenor as dark. Their conclusion was that the strategic purpose of the call was to shore up the base. Again, they miss the point as they misunderstand the motives of the American electorate.
 
President Trump knows that his base is solid. The Democratic vision is so liberal that it presents everything necessary to secure the conservative voting bloc for the President. What progressives ignore, and the press refuses to analyze, is that the American public is a right-of-center society and has been since World War II. On a multitude of issues, the identified conservative coalition of voters in a presidential cycle has averaged 65%. The liberal coalition therefore is 35%.
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Historic 1-10 Scale of the American Electorate
A further breakdown simplifies the analysis. Thirty percent of the public desires more government in their pursuit of personal security. Thirty percent of the public believes inherently that less government is the path to opportunity and personal freedom. Thirty percent is driven by the need for personal economic security. Ten percent at any given time are in prison, seriously ill, or otherwise incapacitated. When issues become complicated, the public’s default position is always to what provides security, what provides freedom, or what provides economic sustainability.
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Historic Position of Swing Vote in Presidential Elections
For the past two years, and just prior to the pandemic crisis, the election profile for President Trump was basically unchanged. Thirty-four percent loved the President and loved his policies. Thirty-seven percent hated the President and hated his policies. Fifteen percent disliked the President personally, but liked his policies more than they disliked his personality. And last, 14% liked his policies but disliked his personality more than they liked his policies. Among likely voters, if the election were held in January, President Trump would have lost the popular vote 49% to 51%, but won the electoral college.
 
Those numbers have now shifted since the pandemic and the ensuing economic crisis, but only among the 29% swing vote who dislike him personally but like his policies. What is important to recognize is that, without considering personalities, 63% of the American public like the President’s policies. Thirty-seven percent detest those policies.
 
All of these opinion percentages are consistent with the historical averages of the 1 to 10 scale and the swing vote. America is not a left-of-center nation.
 
What defines the swing vote? They believe in a strong national defense. They want the nation’s borders secured for reasonable immigration policy. They seek local control of schools (a 10th Amendment issue that authority which is not specifically given to the federal government in the Constitution defaults to the individual states.) They desire a balance to be determined between LGBTQ rights and religious rights. They are committed to racial equality. For economic policy, they are clear on less government regulation for small business, reasonable taxes, and accountability for government spending. If the Independent Party had a party platform, it would include these policy positions.
 
As noted in the last Nuttle Report, 44% of the American public are now registered as Independents, a majority having left either the Republican or Democratic party. The problem is there is no Independent Party infrastructure to sound the clarion call for common sense.
 
The Democratic convention stressed Joe Biden’s character as calm, discerning, compassionate, and empathetic. The campaign strategy is to portray him as “Father Joe” to the church of the American body politic. The sounding alarm was that Donald Trump’s personality is monstrous. And, in civility alone, the country will survive, heal, and prosper. In that message was the hidden theme to moderate Republicans who like Trump’s policies but dislike him personally. It’s okay to vote for personality over policy.
 
The GOP convention will emphasize that the Democratic Party policies are monstrous. They must be confronted and fought in the trenches at every point of advancement. The theme will echo the warning that there can be no compromise. The image invoked is that of Winston Churchill defying the passivists who sought negotiated settlement with Hitler. Any foothold of socialism is an unacceptable encroachment on the framework of freedom. President Trump has said that he is the only thing that stands between America and chaos. In such an allegory, he is “Winston Trump.” The overt message to moderates who like his policies but dislike him personally, is that it’s okay to vote for policy and tolerate personality.
 
The Democrats are perplexed in that President Trump leads Joe Biden 48% to 38% on who can best solve the problems of the economy. How can that be, they ask, when the economic crisis happened on his watch? Put in the historical context of the above graphics, it’s easy to see. The swing vote defaults to the freedom side of the scale for solutions if available. What’s most interesting is that, for the first time since the Great Depression, the economy may be in such jeopardy that the public does not trust the Democrats to permanently restructure it without moving the American system into socialism. This could tilt the scale of election decisions based upon security versus opportunity to the side of freedom.
 
If the 29% swing vote decides that their economic sustainability is paramount in their decision-making process for whom to vote, a majority may choose policy over personality.
 
If the election comes down to a comparison on presidential personality only, Biden wins. If the election comes down to a comparison on policy only, Trump wins.
 
In deciding between “Father Joe” versus “Winston Trump,” measure carefully the matrix of the next four years. Regardless of who is elected President, on November 4th the day after the election, the challenges of the economy, foreign policy, and cultural values facing America will require emergency attention.
 
The first step of the first day for the first policy solution will define the future for a generation.
 
My name is Marc Nuttle and this is what I believe.
 
What do you believe?
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The Start of the Final Scene

8/18/2020

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1832 First Party Convention
The Democrats held the nation’s first party convention in 1832. They nominated Andrew Jackson for President and Martin Van Buren for Vice President. This set the stage for the theatrics of launching a candidate for President in the United States. 2020 will be the last year of a national convention as we know it. We are entering the start of the final scene of our nation’s political history.
 
For the last several election cycles, the national news outlets have threatened to drop coverage. Viewer ratings have declined substantially since the 1970s. With the advent of cable news channels, party conventions became an extension of partisan policy rather than unifying themes. Americans have, in general, rejected extreme partisanship. The fact that the Independent Party now has the largest registration (44%) in the U.S. is commentary that the Democratic and Republican messages are not working, even though they were the only national shows in town. (The Independent Party has no national convention.)
 
The first night of the first national party convention in a presidential cycle is traditionally the start of the Presidential general election. Four years from now, this initial launch will be traditionally restructured, redesigned, and re-strategized. COVID has accelerated the trend to jettison obsolete programming, entertainment, and outdated modes of interactivity. Everyone from Disney to the NFL to national political parties are now rethinking personal relationships. Doing things the old way simply because that’s the way they have always been done is no longer a starting point for consideration.
 
The start of the final scene is more than just political drama. It is the unraveling of a complicated national plot to its logical conclusion. The French call this particular part of the play’s development denouement. Such a scene is based on past circumstances of the plot projected through to the conclusion that reality demands.
 
And so, it begins. What might we expect?
 
The Democratic convention opened last night with an evangelical prayer. It closed in the name of Jesus Christ. This is the first time such a prayer has been rendered at a Democratic convention in many years. The managers of the production evaluate every single word proffered for impact and political intent. Why then an evangelical prayer? It was intended to soften Christians’ perspective in reference to the Democratic party platform and to ease one’s conscience that it’s okay to vote for Joe Biden.
 
Small business owners were emphasized and given credit for being responsible for 50% of all jobs in America. Again, this is unusual for a Democratic convention to highlight. This was done to precondition small and family-owned businesses to the forthcoming message that more government support is needed for the economic recovery.
 
John Kasich, former governor of Ohio, led the anti-Trump Republican choir’s message that civility and acceptance are necessary qualities for presidential character. Emphasizing respect for government officials presages the theme they will present that government action is best run by committee with the least amount of conflict as possible. Michelle Obama prioritized these points.
 
Tonight, the Democrats will preach to their base. The headliner will be Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Other liberals will echo her sentiments. The strategy is to weave continuity between the progressive base, the Bernie Sanders movement, and minority leaders of the party.
 
Further, the general theme of the convention tonight will be that Joe Biden is a good man who listens. He can absorb multiple opinions and determine and implement consensus policy. In other words, he is a good committee manager. He is the quintessential candidate for those who believe in more government.
 
Tomorrow night will be the ultimate stage for former President Barak Obama. He will return to Joe Biden the favor of stating that it’s acceptable, and in this case preferable, to support an outlying candidate who is driven by government solutions.
 
All messages rendered by the speakers are tethered to the basic emotional premise that Donald Trump is simply unsuited to be President of the United States. The strategy is to make the election a simple referendum on whether or not you like President Trump personally.
 
Thursday night will be former Vice President Biden’s opportunity to make the case that policy is less important than personality. His greatest challenge is convincing Americans to support him for what he represents in character rather than for any policy that they desire or fear.
 
The policy plot of denouement yet to be exposed is the complicated mixture of socialism versus free enterprise. One can debate the benefits of each. But in the era of COVID, that will not be the determinative substance of the conversation. The question, as to the result of hidden policy applied in the great unraveling caused by the coronavirus, will simply be: is more government the critical objective or is individual freedom the critical principle to be protected?
 
For some, Joe Biden is less than that for which they had hoped. For some, Donald Trump is more personally than they can stand. We should not ask which one can unite us. We should ask which one will protect freedom as an essential life principle.
 
Progressives are mistaken that people demand equal outcome. What people desire is equal opportunity to peace in destiny. By this, they seek fulfillment in their life’s purpose as each one determines it. This eternal right transcends age, race, gender, and creed.
 
Vice President Joe Biden will sacrifice individual freedom through more government regulation to achieve equal outcome. President Trump will sacrifice equal outcome through less government regulation to achieve individual freedom.
 
Regardless of personalities, one must determine for oneself what is most important in this cumulative scene of our country’s history. Determining what is more important, individual freedom or a government managed society, will clearly identify the logical outcome of a complicated plot known as the Great American Experiment.
 
Elysium is not possible in a mankind-managed society. Only in faith in a spiritual society ordained by God is there hope for perfection.
 
A universal peace of individual destiny can be realized only in freedom of choice. Individuals making decisions freely in line with their own ideal of happiness is the only possible process to achieve peace in existence.
 
Defining peace through personal creed imposed on others divides society. The destruction of evil is only consecrated when righteousness for all is the motive. An individual creed set against all as a tribal exclusivity simply replaces the evil perceived.
 
As the curtain rises on the final scene of this critical Presidential election, look beyond this system of things to the principles most important to you for peace in your personal destiny. . .
 
Look to your own faith in eternal values.
 
My name is Marc Nuttle and this is what I believe.
 
What do you believe?
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    Marc Nuttle

    Marc Nuttle

    Marc Nuttle is a lawyer, author, consultant and businessman who's had a varied career. He has represented and advised Presidents of the United States, leaders of foreign countries, state officials and corporations. Marc has worked on government policy and has predicted economic trends. Marc managed the successful Right to Work campaign in Oklahoma in 2001. 

    Marc Nuttle's blog includes samples of the Nuttle Report as well as regular updates.

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