March 15th Primary Special

What To Look For This Week

Today's primaries could be the deciding factor the GOP nomination. Republicans will vote in 6 contests tomorrow. Donald Trump is poised to win a majority of the states and delegates. March 15this also the last stand for Marco Rubio and John Kasich. Ted Cruz is hoping that after today he will be in a two-man primary for the nomination.
 
Because of the level of importance that these elections have on the overall nomination process, we need to look at them one by one. ​

Florida

• 99 Delegates
• Winner-take-all

Florida is arguably the most important state in today's swath of contests. Marco Rubio needs to win his home state for him to remain a viable candidate. Yet, despite Rubio’s home field advantage, Donald Trump looks like he is going to win it. Trump has led in every poll taken in Florida this year. Polling this week has Trump up an average of 19%. ​

North Carolina

• 72 Delegates
• Proportional

North Carolina is the only true proportional delegate state in today's contests. Because of this, each of the candidates will win delegates in this state. Donald Trump is leading Ted Cruz in the polls by an average of 12%.  However, keep in mind that this state is all about delegates, and winning the state doesn’t give the candidate any extra. ​

Illinois

• 69 delegates (54 district, 15 statewide)
• District level loophole; winner-take-all 

Illinois is probably the most confusing state in today's elections when it comes to delegate allocation. The vast majority of delegates are determined by the vote in each congressional district. Voters in each district elect three delegates directly instead of voting for a presidential candidate (though each delegate’s preferred candidate is listed on the ballot). So, voters need to vote up to four times — once for their candidate of choice in the statewide race and then for each of the three congressional district delegates they prefer.
 
If Trump can hold onto his lead (currently around 35%) he will come out of Illinois with a vast majority of the delegates, in part due to the 15 delegate bonus for the statewide winner.

Ohio

• 66 Delegates
• Winner-take-all

Much like Florida for Marco Rubio, Ohio is John Kasich’s last stand. However, unlike Rubio, John Kasich has a very good chance of winning his home state. Current polls have the Governor leading Trump by an average of 3.2%. The importance of this primary in relationship to the overall Republican race is colossal. Trump is unlikely to reach a majority of delegates needed to win the Republican nomination if he loses Ohio. If that happens, Republicans will almost assuredly have a contested convention.

Missouri

• 52 delegates (40 district, 12 statewide)
• Winner-take-all on the district and statewide level

Trump will most likely win this state. However, this is Ted Cruz’s best chance at winning some delegates on Tuesday. Although there has been very little polling, so it is a bit difficult to see what is going on in Missouri. ​

Northern Mariana Islands

• 9 Delegates

Most of us tend to forget Northern Mariana Islands. However, 9 delegates is nothing to laugh at and could go a long way in keeping someone in the race. There is almost no way to tell who is going to win this race because no polling has been done. Yet, Trump could win this one thanks to Ben Carson’s endorsement.