Today's primaries could be the deciding factor the GOP nomination. Republicans will vote in 6 contests tomorrow. Donald Trump is poised to win a majority of the states and delegates. March 15this also the last stand for Marco Rubio and John Kasich. Ted Cruz is hoping that after today he will be in a two-man primary for the nomination.
 
Because of the level of importance that these elections have on the overall nomination process, we need to look at them one by one. ​

• 99 Delegates
• Winner-take-all

Florida is arguably the most important state in today's swath of contests. Marco Rubio needs to win his home state for him to remain a viable candidate. Yet, despite Rubio’s home field advantage, Donald Trump looks like he is going to win it. Trump has led in every poll taken in Florida this year. Polling this week has Trump up an average of 19%. ​

• 72 Delegates
• Proportional

North Carolina is the only true proportional delegate state in today's contests. Because of this, each of the candidates will win delegates in this state. Donald Trump is leading Ted Cruz in the polls by an average of 12%.  However, keep in mind that this state is all about delegates, and winning the state doesn’t give the candidate any extra. ​

• 52 delegates (40 district, 12 statewide)
• Winner-take-all on the district and statewide level

Trump will most likely win this state. However, this is Ted Cruz’s best chance at winning some delegates on Tuesday. Although there has been very little polling, so it is a bit difficult to see what is going on in Missouri. ​

​The Michigan primary election is today. As the polls close the main thing to look for will be if the results end up similar to those in Louisiana on Saturday. Polling in Louisiana showed that Donald Trump was going to beat Ted Cruz by an average of 15%. However, Trump underperformed on Election Day compared to the polls only beating Cruz by 3.6%. If Trump underperforms the polls again it means that the establishment attacks are working and it is softening Donald Trumps support.
 
Currently Donald Trump is leading by an average of about 13% in Michigan. Tonight as the results come in, watch for Trump’s margin to shrink.

The polls indicate that Donald Trump is leading in South Carolina. Yet, something happened yesterday that in unprecedented in American Politics. His Holiness, the Pope, interjected himself in the Presidential debate. Tomorrow watch for what effect this may have on the ideologies of the American electorate.

American citizens feel very strongly that American Presidential politics, security, along with federal and state policy are issues solely for the American people. It would be appropriate to explain your position on an issue. However, no person should question a person’s faith as a Christian – only God can do that.
 
By such action, his Holiness may have galvanized the ideologies of American politics. No matter your political leaning, many are united in the conclusion that the Pope overstepped his bounds.
 
No current polls are reflective of the Pope’s intervention yesterday. What we need to watch for is the blending of ideologies. Who will win the evangelical vote, between Trump, Cruz and Carson? Also, with Governor Nikki Haley’s endorsement of Marco Rubio, who will win the establishment vote between him, Bush, and Kasich?
 
The election tomorrow will reveal the true impact of the Pope’s actions. In the next Nuttle Report I will explore the profound meaning the answers to these questions have on the political landscape of America. 

​Tonight in Iowa begins the selection process for nominees for President of the United States. But it is not just about determining nominees. It will impact the structure, the identity, and the purpose of grassroots activism in America for a generation. We have all watched the phenomenon called Donald Trump. Traditional political forces, centered around the establishment, conservatives, and evangelicals, have acted and responded to the issues of the day in a traditional manner. What the Trump candidacy represents is an entirely new political force outside of this traditional structure, yet to be completely understood.
 
It is the general consensus among professionals that the polling data on Don Trump is accurate. If his supporters go to the caucuses, he will win. The two campaigns with substantial paid organizations are Senator Ted Cruz and Secretary Hillary Clinton. In past elections, organization was critical to victory. Trump could win if in fact his supporters will go to the caucuses on their own volition. If this occurs in Iowa, it will probably occur everywhere else. 
 
In 1980, a non-traditional candidate by the name of Ronald Reagan challenged the establishment. He galvanized the upstart movements of the New Right Conservativism and the Christian Right. Grassroots activity was changed for a generation. A Trump victory tonight will be the beginning of coalitional realignment of grassroots forces. If Senator Cruz wins, we will not know the ultimate impact on the grassroots until subsequent primaries are concluded.  I will address the results of the caucuses in the Nuttle Report tomorrow. 
 
Enjoy the returns tonight. We are living in an age of fundamental societal change.
 
Marc Nuttle

Ben Ginsberg published an excellent article on Politico entitled, “Why the GOP primary could be even crazier than you think.” Ben is a longtime observer of the process and his analysis is excellent. He talks about how a series of primaries may lead to and ebb and flow of momentum for the current primary candidates. He makes the point that March is usually the indicator month of who the eventual nominee will be. This year could be different. States that do not lend themselves to grassroots organization, such as New York, Pennsylvania, Oregon and California, could play key roles in the nomination process. For the first time in years, theme, message, and political motivation of the electorate could be critical for later primaries. What’s the difference? In the past, by March an eventual nominee was coalescing the party around themselves as the only viable option. If there are three or more viable candidates at the end of March, the party divisions may be amplified by theme and message. This could result in an extended primary contest, or even a brokered convention, as the ultimate nominee seeks a unifying message.

Read the Politico Article Here

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