Ben Ginsberg published an excellent article on Politico entitled, “Why the GOP primary could be even crazier than you think.” Ben is a longtime observer of the process and his analysis is excellent. He talks about how a series of primaries may lead to and ebb and flow of momentum for the current primary candidates. He makes the point that March is usually the indicator month of who the eventual nominee will be. This year could be different. States that do not lend themselves to grassroots organization, such as New York, Pennsylvania, Oregon and California, could play key roles in the nomination process. For the first time in years, theme, message, and political motivation of the electorate could be critical for later primaries. What’s the difference? In the past, by March an eventual nominee was coalescing the party around themselves as the only viable option. If there are three or more viable candidates at the end of March, the party divisions may be amplified by theme and message. This could result in an extended primary contest, or even a brokered convention, as the ultimate nominee seeks a unifying message.
Read the Politico Article Here
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