Volume 6, Issue 22
What’s really going on behind the scenes?
The national news media is adamant that President Trump is erratic and dangerously inadequate in diplomatic experience. They seem to be more worried about President Kim’s feelings than our own national objectives. Vice President Mike Pence and National Security Advisor John Bolton did reference the Libyan example. That sovereign transformation did not end well for Muammar Gaddafi. President Kim cited this as the determinative reason for his new belligerent tone. National talking heads referred to Kim’s actions as expectable. They came to the conclusion that President Trump was being played.
The exact opposite is the actual case.
A Brief History & Background
It seems so long ago that we have forgotten that Chinese President Xi came to visit, at his request, President Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Two things are significant about this. First, communist leaders do not go to country clubs. Such a venue is an anathema to them. There are any number of places where they could have met that would have rendered a neutral environment in appearance. A foreign embassy or even a state government facility would have projected an image of meeting halfway. Further, the Florida location was President Trump’s home, another deferential courtesy to the President. Second, the meeting was called on short notice, even though President Trump had made stark references, during his campaign, to China’s unfair trade policies. Normally, intermediaries would have met first. The venue and the discussion would have been designed to reflect equal power. In this situation, President Xi came asking for help.
What were Xi’s requests?
China is not as economically strong as it appears. They are 20% of the world’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Yet their currency (the yuan) is not in demand. In fact, China is required by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to maintain a reserve of $2.73 trillion to insure the underwriting of their currency for the introduction of the yuan in internationally quoted exchange rates. China expands its economy through government underwritten projects. To date, that has worked inside China where foreign competition is restricted. This policy is now meeting resistance outside of the Pacific Rim. President Xi asked for President Trump’s help to not pressure China by and through a new Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). He also requested time to consolidate power inside the communist party. When his power was consolidated, he promised to become a better trade partner for the United States. That was his argument. In return, President Trump asked for help in dealing with North Korea.
President Xi did purge over 1,000 members of the communist party leadership. He is now President for life. It was reported privately that China offered President Kim asylum. Kim rejected that offer. But, he was put on notice that China’s blind support for his regime was coming to an end.
When Kim threatened to fire a missile near the coast of Guam as an act of defiance, President Trump was clear that he would take military action against North Korea. President Xi, in a public statement, notified Kim that, if he launched a missile threatening Guam, he was on his own. China would not intervene in defense of North Korea on any action taken by the United States.
This was the turning point in negotiations with the North Korean regime. The world waited with bated breath in anticipation of whether Kim would carry out his threat. The question on everyone’s mind was whether or not he was crazy. Did he really believe he could stand down the United States of America? When Kim backed down, there was a collective sigh of relief. He was rational.
China does not want a unified Korean peninsula. It strengthens the U.S. presence in the Pacific Rim. And, it is likely to result in a free enterprise economy on China’s southern border. Yet, given that, China is more concerned about its current economic stability than future geopolitics.
China needs the United States more than it needs North Korea.
Our economic sanctions are crushing to North Korea. Without Chinese support, the country of North Korea cannot survive. Without access to American markets, China cannot survive. President Xi responded immediately to President Trump’s threat of tariffs on aluminum by offering compromise. A high-level Chinese trade delegation is on its way to Washington, DC at the writing of this report, further evidence that the United States is paramount in world trade.
Further, North Korea is sandwiched geographically between two prosperous countries, China and South Korea. It is possible to keep a country dark for a while, unaware of the reality of the outside world. But sooner or later, the population is alerted to the reality that open economies produce a better way of life, physically and spiritually. North Koreans are beginning to understand the consequences of totalitarianism.
In the days preceding the fall of the Soviet Union, a Soviet general visited the United States as part of a diplomatic delegation. He was allowed to visit a basic American supermarket. The experience left him in shock. He could not have comprehended the aisles upon aisles of produce, selection, quantity, and prices if he had not seen it with his own eyes. For back in Moscow, the lines were long to receive weekly allocations of bread and beets from dingy buildings of distribution. When asked how the trip to the United States had impacted him, he replied, “I knew they were lying to us (the Soviet government), but I had no idea how big the lie was.” Within 18 months, the Soviet Union collapsed.
Since World War II and the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States has not only been the beacon of freedom, but the last line of defense for liberty in the world. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Yet they are not able to act. They lost World War II. They have been cultural enemies with China for a millennium. They have a minimal military presence. Therefore, only the United States is positioned to broker and enforce a peace treaty with North Korea.
Can anyone imagine a set of circumstances wherein Mexico is in dispute with Guatemala requiring a peace treaty that would change one government dramatically? And further that China would negotiate and enforce an agreement between them wherein the United States was passive? Of course not.
History has delegated in trust the defense of freedom to the United States.
President Trump’s Strategy
President Trump refuses to allow North Korea to play its usual game. When President Kim cited Vice President Pence’s comments and the U.S. joint military exercises with South Korea to reframe the negotiations, President Trump said ‘see ya later.’ Within two days, President Kim was in full panic. He met, unscheduled, with South Korean President Moon last Saturday to declare that he was desirous of continuing the dialog for a peace treaty.
It is incredible to think that Kim could not turn to either China or the United States, so he turned to his arch enemy, South Korea, for help.
Establishment diplomats would have caved to Kim and offered him incentives to change his attitude. President Trump did just the opposite. ‘If you don’t want to meet, we can postpone, and you can live with economic sanctions.’ He was conciliatory and left the door open. Now, the summit is back on, and pursuant to President Trump’s terms.
It is beyond explanation to fathom that career diplomats would knowingly accept Einstein’s definition of insanity, as a negotiating strategy, doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results. Because, in the implementation of such action, the results are always the same, can be anticipated, and, therefore, managed. The Establishment fears change, for change is their enemy. New strategies threaten their control, even if it means the successful solution of a societal problem.
So, what is President Trump doing?
He is refusing to accept business as usual when the outcome is negatively predictive. By knowing the physical circumstances of the sovereigns in play, and instinctively determining the propensities, the pretensions, the habits, and the desires of the principals involved, President Trump is practicing proclivity negotiation.
In so doing, President Trump is calling Kim Jong-un’s bluff. And, he is also holding China accountable, at least on this geopolitical issue.
And, in so doing, he is remaining true to and honoring history’s trust in the United States to defend the principles of freedom. It is in the truth of this trust that the people deserve to be served by the government rather than to be made slaves of totalitarianism.
The world benefits mightily when America upholds and defends the principles of freedom.
My name is Marc Nuttle and this is what I believe.
What do you believe?