Volume 8, Issue 43
The Nuttle Report is being published on Thursday to capture the latest pre-election weekend polling summaries. Wednesday night late, before the next general election Tuesday, is normally the deadline when final survey research is conducted state-by-state. Weekend polling before election day is of little value. Messages are set and cannot be adjusted. TV stations will not allow new ads in most cases on the weekend before an election. Any information that can be used to fine tune the message to a targeted group must be available by Wednesday. Production and distribution time frames dictate this discipline.
The next Nuttle Report will be published a week from today on Thursday after the elections. Whether or not the nation knows who the next President is by that time, options for analysis of the Electoral College will most certainly be narrowed. More on this later.
As if things couldn’t get any stranger, weirder, or more unprecedented in 2020, they have in the context of this Presidential election season. The first factor defining the Presidential campaign is not that unusual. As a nation, we are divided on a multitude of issues. How to address economic, racial, gender, religious, immigration, healthcare, and security policy is par for the course. We are a country of multi-dimensional, philosophical, ideological people.
However, factor two has set in: an unprecedented intensity on core beliefs rendering any compromise on differing points of view impossible. This factor has amplified to the stage that each group committed on a specific issue believes so strongly they are right that winning at any cost is justifiable. Defeat of their candidates means their way of life as they know it is threatened. In other words, losing the election is losing one’s cultural existence.
Now, factor three has emerged in the last few weeks. Disparate political combatants acknowledge the same set of facts but come to completely different conclusions on the definition of reality based on those facts. COVID is under control; COVID is out of control. The economy is rebounding; the economy is in jeopardy. American allies look to America more than ever; America’s standing in the world has been diminished. The police are functionable; the police are corrupt.
Former President Obama, in a campaign speech this week, went so far as to define his view of the world as reality, and Donald Trump’s view of the world as reality TV.
The American people receive this political season’s rhetoric from partisans as disingenuous and unhelpful. Such partisan diatribe can demean an individual citizen’s political views as out of the mainstream. This can make one feel inferior in one’s political views, and therefore, of little value in participating in the debate on political ideas. The American public should give themselves greater credit on knowing truth from untruth. In this our 245th year as a republic, the American people continue to make progress in the wisdom of their election decisions for the perpetuation of self-rule.
Now to the numbers. The Rasmussen Poll, which was the most accurate in 2016, has Joe Biden at 49% and President Trump at 48% of likely voters. Both candidates have flipped positions in the poll twice in the last week at 49-48. The average of other national polls has Biden up 49%-43% of likely voters. This would indicate an undercount for President Trump. The critical swing states form a geographical arc over the country: Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida. It is difficult for President Trump to win the Electoral College without winning Florida and North Carolina. He is currently up three points 49-46 in Florida. Trump and Biden are dead even in North Carolina. President Trump is ahead in Arizona. Joe Biden is ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is shaping up to be a pivotal state again as it was in 2016. Any surprises in Ohio or Texas would further scramble the equation for President Trump.
Both Florida and Arizona count their votes early. It is possible that a winner could be declared in those two states Tuesday night. Pennsylvania still counts ballots received three days after the election. Mail-in ballots will have an impact there. If Pennsylvania becomes the last state to declare a winner, it may be a week to ten days past the election before we know who the next President of the United States will be.
Who will control the US Senate is a much more complicated analysis. Most pundits have Republicans picking up Alabama and losing Arizona, Colorado, and Maine. This would leave the Republicans with a one-seat majority. Montana, Iowa, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia all have close Senate races. Republicans are in fact behind in Montana and in one of two seats in Georgia. Trends indicate that Republicans will hold these seats. If Vice President Biden wins any of these states, Republicans are likely to lose one more Senate seat. This would result in a 50-50 split in the Senate. The newly elected Vice President is President of the Senate and a tie-breaking vote.
There are other factors that play into the ultimate outcome. President Trump’s personal negatives are high, above 50%. Joe Biden’s negatives are lower, but his supporters lack the enthusiasm of President Trump’s supporters. Both of these factors impact turnout. Republicans have out-registered new voters over the Democrats nationwide by a million votes. In Pennsylvania alone, Republicans have out-registered Democrats by 100,000 new voters. These voters are likely to vote and are not represented in the polls because they have no voting history as likely voters. One hundred thousand votes in Pennsylvania, based on the 2016 turnout of a little less than 5 million votes, is 2% to the bottom line.
Democrats have focused their resources on the expansion of mail-in ballots. This will increase the turnout of inner city and minority voters. These are two categories of voters that failed to meet voter turnout targets in 2016.
How all this plays out next Tuesday will be the sum of all the emotions, political tactics, and state-by-state election particulars that make up national elections in a Presidential cycle in the United States of America.
In this extraordinary year of 2020, through the most divisive political season in the history of our country, the future of America resides in the hands of the electorate who must navigate their way through the third election factor to determine reality representing their view of the American Dream and their hope for the future.
That is exactly where all authority should rest.
My name is Marc Nuttle and this is what I believe.
What do you believe?