Volume 10, Issue 41
The mid-term elections do provide an opportunity for choices.
Understanding and accepting the long-term trends and cycles of natural forces and current events can be helpful. There are things outside of our control. However, there are certain principles and axioms that, when also understood and committed to in discipline and support, can give one peace that certain things are under our control.
For example, climate change remains a governmental policy issue of debate internationally among many sovereign nations. Apocalyptic predictions are the tool of hysterical histrionics. Any rational analysis for government policy dealing with climate change requires serious consideration of the overall complexity of the determining system. In the case of global climate, the interrelating elements are as multifaceted as they are extended in connection.
The sun is the primary source for heating the earth. The long-term forces of nature such as solar radiation transcends millenniums. The earth’s surface absorbs and reflects heat in different ratios through water, land and requisite altitudes. The tilt of the earth in its rotation around the sun alters the angle of the sun’s rays resulting in different seasons of winter and summer simultaneously in the northern and southern hemispheres compromising into temperate zones at the equator. Ocean currents, jet streams, polar caps, volcanoes, earthquakes, and tectonic plates all interact in a massive equilibrium of natural environmental patterns.
The point is that the operating system of global climate is so complex that any overt government policy must be designed to balance sensible immediate beneficial effects for society in comparison to long-term generational change.
And so it is with economics.
World economics is the interaction between different cultures, societies, and nation-states. Much like the long-term effects of the sun’s heating of the earth, there is a lag time between societies in cause and effect of certain government actions taken. Currency and debt management by one sovereign indirectly affects world trade in ratio to the size of its economy. Balance of payments, currency exchange rates, accumulation of sovereign debt, taxes, tariffs, monetary and fiscal policy all interact in a complex global economic system. No single element can be adjusted to recalibrate the entire matrix in the short-term, particularly inflation. Long-term discipline is required to stabilize a global system.
The science of economic wave theory founded the premise that human innovation through technology changes the overall economic formula. The tug and pull of independence in competition with establishment government generates different equations of productivity in society. These complex systems of economic activity are constantly in competition generating different societal outcomes pursuant to government policy instituted.
In addition to economic waves, societal waves have emerged throughout history as a result of the interaction of climate change, economic change, and government policy. When droughts occurred in excess of technology’s ability to provide food, migration accelerated. Societies merged at times into conflict. New governments and alliances were formed. This interaction between the natural environment, cultures, societies, and governing sovereigns is the true totality of the world system in which we live.
Societal waves can be argued to follow 75 to 100-year trends. This can be traced back 6,000 years to the beginning of recorded history. There are various ways to categorize these trends. Beginning with modern history, the period 1645 to 1745, was the dominance of colonialism. From 1745 to 1845 was the era of colonial transition to independence. The United States’ Declaration of Independence in 1776 is the epitome of this time. The period 1845 to 1945 was a time of technological innovation and economic reconciliation. The Industrial Revolution, the decline of kingdoms, World War I, the Depression, and World War II occurred. The rise of America in a new world order was the result. In the United States, human rights played a major role in its own Civil War. This was a period which involved the interaction of most elements of the world’s complex systems.
The current period of world history is 77 years into its 100-year cycle. The perennial forces of cultural influence are once again coming into conflict. China and Russia struggle to exist in a free world order. Their form of totalitarianism is unable to compete or peacefully coexist with free choice economies of the West. Accumulation of debt by all countries to underwrite inefficient government protocols exacerbates the world economic equilibrium. The strength of the dollar as the world’s dominant currency is forcing nations to decide between the economic systems of freedom and totalitarianism.
The mid-term elections of the United States are in 12 days. The debates for control of the U.S. House and Senate have centered on the one hand about climate control and abortion, and on the other hand about inflation, jobs, crime, and border control. What does any of this have to do with the practical management of complex systems?
Everything if one will keep in mind honoring foundational axioms of complex systems.
Respecting order is the key principle. For society, the first step is to enforce the law. Crime must be contained. Criminals must be prosecuted. There can be no social pass for inequities of society. There may have been past privileges, but the first order of business to address inequality is to stabilize society. Without safety and security, there can be no viable commerce. For citizens to communicate, relate, cooperate, and trust each other, they must first feel that their families are safe.
Controlling the borders is critical for internal security of local society in the United States. As dire and horrific as the situation can be for certain immigrants, solutions must be found to deal with their needs where they are. This may seem insensitive, but is actually humane if dealt with practically. It requires all nation-states involved in the situation to be held accountable.
Macro complex interactive systems of connected multifaceted elements and forces must be recognized for the long-term effects that can only be addressed generationally. The short-term order of principles of overriding systems that establish the foundational opportunities for long-term objectives must not be denied.
Simplify the problem to define the primary component on which all solutions are based, the core axiom principle.
Do not be frustrated by the complexity of issues or by things that seem to be out of our control. There are choices to be made that will make an immediate difference in our families’ lives by our votes in the mid-term elections.
Maintaining order is the critical first step. Then, when society is stabilized, citizens should demand of their elected officials that they tell the truth of the sacrifice that is required to control inflation.
And, further demand, in the pending battle between freedom and totalitarianism that is sure to come, no matter what the price, never, never surrender.
My name is Marc Nuttle and this is what I believe.
What do you believe?