Volume 5, Issue 18
The course of human history, taken collectively, is, in fact, one big drama with several plots and subplots. The scenes are re-set, the characters change. But in reference to governments, one theme stands out. The whole truth is seldom exposed or admitted. The scenario rendered often contains shades of truth, blurred by deceptiveness for the purpose of achieving an agenda which will not stand on its own merits.
The last great re-set was at the conclusion of World War II. The world’s monetary systems, banking systems, military systems, and government alliances were rearranged and reestablished to reflect the new world order. Intentions were admirable. Many of today’s problems, however, economically and geopolitically, are a result of this new organizational structure having run its course. Even the divide between North and South Korea began in 1945.
With the election of Donald Trump, a great untying or unraveling has begun.
Governments, constituted among men, seek compromise in relations through diplomacy. The stated goal and purpose is to move the existing system down the road a few years without losing cultural identity or comparative advantage. In these compromises, at times subterfuge is more dominant than principles defined. Compromise is accepted, even when on its face it is reprehensible, if in fact it allows a sovereign nation to at least, in its day-to-day activity, maintain its historical identity.
In this process, nation states pretend to tell each other the truth, and the member states pretend to believe it. Eventually, the truth will become evident and prove itself.
The reality of the world at this point in history is, in fact, the result of such geopolitical posturing in the Middle East, Pacific Rim, Eastern Europe, Europe, North America and all countries south of the equator. At the last great reset, it would have been impossible to predict the occurrence and consequences of the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the establishment and fall of the Berlin Wall, the rise and fall of the Soviet Union, the European Union, and the rise of China. Through each of these milestones in post-World War II history, governments have navigated rough seas maintaining the post-war order. Yes, the Soviet Union failed, but it morphed into the existing structure. The point is, its collapse did not require a worldwide reset. We are nearing the resolution of tenuous arrangements in this scene of world history.
The Deep State
In the act of governing, every country has a council that plays the “what if” game. What if there is a war? What if there is a pandemic? What if there is a major terrorist attack that disrupts economic structure? And most critical in this type of analysis is, what happens upon such an occurrence to our country in this drama in which we are participating? For instance, it is curious, if not unprecedented, for a communist leader to agree to a first meeting of heads of state at a country club. Yet that is exactly what President Trump and President Xi of China did.
Why?
Because China is going through its own analysis of “what if.” The election of Donald Trump changed the status quo. The Chinese government is in trouble economically because of the mismanagement and resulting instability of the Chinese currency, the Yuan. Any economic downturn, that requires dollars to shore up the economy, could be beyond their ability to cure. There is a debate going on in China about whether to double-down on communism economically. This dictates an attempt to establish a command regional economy in the Pacific Rim wherein only the Yuan is acceptable. The Soviet Union tried this with the Ruble. As late as 1991, if a person was caught inside the Soviet Union with dollars, it was a criminal offense subject to imprisonment. The answer to this question of whether or not such economic controls work is, how did that work out for the Soviet Union? They collapsed.
President Xi is more of an adherent to the Deng Xiaoping school of economic theory. The communist system must comply with capitalistic axioms. This includes free world exchanges with stock markets, banks, and currencies. President Xi is attempting to consolidate power to avoid the same mistakes made by the Soviet Union. He is asking for help and he is receiving it. In this diplomatic dance, China has agreed to put pressure on North Korea. Talks between China and North Korea are sensitive and volatile. But without China, North Korea will have no option but to agree to denuclearize the Korean peninsula. The competing visions of the Deep State will be further adjusted.
A Strong Man Rises
Often at times in world history, when scenes on the world stage are coming to a conclusion, strong men rise. We see this boldness in Vladimir Putin of Russia, Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey, Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, and Kim Jong-Un of North Korea. Others will follow. Keeping in check this natural syndrome of society, demanding strong leadership to protect cultural identity, is the responsibility of the United States and China. Why? Because each country represents the competing economic engine of the world’s machinery. Europe can only deal with itself right now following Brexit and the looming French elections. Strong men never restrain themselves, for there is always just one more element of power necessary that they must attain to reach the projected mirage of stability. Freedom always pays the price.
A Common Destiny
Václav Havel, the great Czech freedom leader, saw the plight not only of his people, but of all those under the subjugation of the Soviet Union. He spoke of the dignity of man being encompassed by a common destiny. No one is born to serve another at the cost of his or her own freedom.
Abraham Lincoln, in his second inaugural address delivered during the American Civil War, explained how all diplomacy had been exhausted to avoid the war, and then “the war came.” Donald Trump has been elected President of the United States. It is not his intention, nor should it necessarily be, to extend the drama by pretending to believe that, solely through diplomacy, business-as-usual will succeed. In times of denouement, we seek to avoid a shipwreck as the final resolution of world occurrences and intricacies run their course and unravel. But if in times of a great reset certain struggles “come,” it is critical for a leader to do what is necessary to protect the principles of freedom for all citizens. The Civil War was necessary to maintain the Union.
And it is equally critical for all citizens to hold as absolute the proposition that we must maintain the ship of state together; For half a ship cannot sink. The ship of state will survive rough seas in whole, or not at all.
Our future hope is the success of freedom manifested. In this hope, the human race is bound in a common destiny.
My name is Marc Nuttle and this is what I believe.
What do you believe?