Volume 8, Issue 20
The governors of every state have now formally addressed the process and protocol to reopen their respective states’ economies. All but two states entered into phase one relaxation of stay-at-home orders. Epidemiologists are aghast. They have not been reserved in stating their opinions. Dr. Anthony Fauci professed concern that a new outbreak could result leaving the states without the ability to control the disease. Dr. Richard Bright, government whistleblower, testified before Congress that the country could be entering the most severe winter of our national history (referring to potential spikes of COVID-19).
Demonstrations have ensued in more than twenty state capitals protesting state government infringement upon individual liberties. Not all the protests centered on freedom of movement. Some demonstrators stressed the need to go back to work to support their families. Their motivation to defy state orders is the most basic of all concerns, putting food on the table for their children.
How are these passionate inclinations determinative for political and geopolitical strategies?
The Presidential Campaign
The Democrats continue to struggle to establish a single, simple theme to defeat President Trump. The usual attacks on his character have not worked. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads in the popular vote, but the Electoral College remains deadlocked. Democratic strategists have been experimenting with different messages to test a candidate comparison based on just “President Trump himself is the problem.” It has not moved the Electoral College.
Former President Barack Obama has emerged as a partisan attack protagonist. He used the opportunity of a commencement speech this past weekend to criticize the President’s administration for the handling of the pandemic. This is highly unusual for a two-term former President to engage in this type of rhetoric at such a venue this early in the season. It is not by accident. Democrats are trying to understand whether a presidential campaign can be won simply by attacking the personal character and record of the President without providing any policy agenda of hope. The results are yet to be seen.
There has been substantial speculation that Joe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee. There are any number of scenarios by which he could be forced to step aside. President Obama’s unsubtle emergence into the arena of partisan politics now leads one to believe that Biden is the likely standard bearer.
Why has Joe Biden remained in the basement of his home. He has not offered any policy distinctions. He has not counseled with foreign allies. He has not presented himself as an alternative to the President. This may be because the research indicates that he does not fit the profile of an ideological leader who can unite the country around a new vision for America.
By canceling the New York Democratic Presidential primary, delegates to the national convention from the state of New York will now be appointed. This diminished Bernie Sanders’ influence on the convention floor. Super delegates and newly appointed delegates as a result of restructured state primary elections approach 50% of the national convention delegates. If for any reason it were deemed that Vice President Biden could not win the Electoral College, it is still very possible that he could be replaced.
The question that haunts the Democratic establishment is, with whom to replace him?
There are many rumors about who this replacement could be, yet none who can be tested in advance. The strategy may be for former President Obama to be the de facto candidate in a campaign theme of “President Trump versus President Trump’s character” with former Vice President Biden the beneficiary.
The table is set in that the decision about reelecting President Trump will be based upon the public’s perception of whether or not he did a good job in handling the incredible circumstances of the pandemic. If the public’s confidence in America’s economy and government is greater in November than today, the President will be reelected. If there is individual fear about the future, the Democratic strategy may be successful. As goes the Presidential elections, so will go the elections for the U.S. Senate.
If there is an uncontrollable spike in the COVID-19 pandemic before the election, the Democrats will be in a stronger position. If there is not a spike, then the President’s position is enhanced.
The numbers to keep in mind are 19 – 21 – 10. Currently, nineteen states are reporting declining numbers of COVID-19 cases. Twenty-one states have flattened the curve. Ten states are experiencing increasing numbers yet manageable in their healthcare systems. The original argument by the Center for Disease Control (CDC) to shelter-in-place was to flatten the curve, not eliminate the virus.
This objective has been achieved. The benchmark has been set in all fifty states. The table is set.
Collateral Elements
As the summer and fall present the answers for the Presidential election, other collateral particulars will also find root. The policy agenda of the United States government will diverge dramatically following the elections of 2020. Citizens will decide on a future wherein the government sets priorities either for safety first, the economy second, and freedom third. Or the government will pursue priorities for the economy, balanced with security first, always considering the ultimate commitment to freedom.
China is attempting to replace the United States as the world’s benevolent benefactor for developing countries. As President Trump is determined to hold the World Health Organization (WHO) accountable for its handling primarily of information surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, China committed this week to a $2 billion contribution. Further, the Chinese government is ambitious in recruiting other countries to receive in-kind aid for their healthcare and infrastructure systems. Many strings are attached to this purported munificence. Contributions are a debt that must be repaid. Any acceptance of help requires entanglements, and therefore entrapment, with their banking system. China’s desire is to replace the dollar with the yuan as the world’s reserve currency.
Managing the world’s sovereign debt will be instrumental in determining China’s role in developing countries. The table is set.
We as citizens are, at times, pawns in a great political game of chess. The only thing we can do is determine the facts for ourselves. Our analysis must be based on what we know is true, not what we are told is true. We must think for ourselves. We must rely upon our own values. We must trust each other.
We must never fear a future that is committed to freedom.
My name is Marc Nuttle and this is what I believe.
What do you believe?