Volume 10, Issue 4
In a drama or novel, the logical outcome of a series of events is based upon the plot and the intentions of the characters. In reality, complicated plots evolve as key decisions of the players are made.
When circumstances get out of control, the consequences can be unpredictable, leading to an unintended denouement that the characters of the real-life plot originally never expected. Such consequences can be disastrous when the resulting events spiral out of control.
And, so it is in the drama playing out between President Biden and President Putin.
Vladimir Putin’s intentions were never to invade and occupy Ukraine. His strategy was to intimidate Ukraine into negotiating with Russia for their defense in opposition to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). His tactics were, of course, old school. In his formative years, he was trained by the KGB as an agent. The idea is to negotiate with one's opponent while there is a gun to their head.
Putin may also have been of the opinion that he could divide the NATO European partners on differences of geopolitical infrastructure. He expected the United States to negotiate to a stalemate.
President Biden’s reaction was to immediately raise the ante by proposing ultimate sanctions. These sanctions would include shutting off Russia from international banking privileges. Such a move could, in fact, bring the Russian economy to its knees.
President Biden accelerated the confrontation. Whether or not he did so for ulterior motives is undetermined. The fact is that he did not negotiate piecemeal, giving Putin any room to maneuver in the process of de-escalation. President Biden expected President Putin to immediately capitulate.
Ukrainian President Zelensky's request was for President Biden to relax his heightened rhetoric. He argued that war was not imminent and time was needed to explore options dealing with the NATO alliance. President Putin echoed President Zelensky’s remarks. President Biden’s answer was to send 3,000 troops to the region. This was a symbolic force, yet a major political statement. President Zelensky expected an easing of tensions in the normal process of stalemate.
European leaders are fearful of provocation. European states are economically vulnerable to conflict with Russia. Germany in particular relies upon Russia for natural gas. This source of energy is critical for manufacturing and heating homes in the winter. Sanctions in mid-winter leave Germany no time to plan for any alternative infrastructure options. No one wants war, yet no one wants totalitarian aggression to go unchecked. European leaders expected President Biden and President Putin to meet at a summit to negotiate geopolitical policy for NATO’s role in the region.
President Putin did not expect his marshaling of troops to set in motion unintended actions by the United States. Russian citizens are used to sacrifice. They revel in the premise that their military is all-powerful and foreboding in presence. President Putin is playing to his audience. At the same time, Putin must save face. Stalemate would have achieved that.
Now, President Putin finds himself in the dangerous situation of unraveling circumstances out of his control. His next move was to contact his anti-Western partner, China’s President Xi Jinping. This was not to consult on a world military war. It was to seek support financially in a world economic war. The ultimate “nuclear” sanction that President Biden can invoke is the elimination of access to U.S. dollars in banking, finance, and commercial transactions. Russia depends primarily on oil and gas revenues denominated in dollars for the support of their economy and their military actions. Russia and China have long conspired to replace the dollar with a ruble/yuan petrocurrency. Such a restructuring of the world’s financial markets could render cataclysmic economic results for the world’s economic system.
The Biden Administration has conferenced with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America in reference to the risk of outstanding loans to Russia. The European Central Bank has consulted with European banks under their jurisdiction to ask the same question about financial exposure. This preparation further intensifies the situation.
This could result in the unintended denouement of a complicated plot carried out to its illogical conclusion.
What is necessary and required now to avoid the spiraling of uncontrolled circumstances is to move stalemate to détente. A cold war is better than risking the world’s financial system. For such a diplomatic state of affairs to be worth the price, Russia must acquiesce to the standing down of all Russian armed forces in pursuit of the acquisition of land or resources by military aggression.
Primarily the Russian people presently have as their self-worth a vision of grandeur from their past glory. Alternatively, primarily the people of the United States have as their present self-worth the hope of future freedom and free will. The former is a lost illusion. The latter is a found narrative of reality.
Russians will sacrifice by following their leaders in a futile effort of seeking a fantasy represented by a mirage of a non-existing empire.
America must lead with unselfish discipline to manage the country’s national financial affairs. The United States is the world’s federal reserve. The destination of its leadership leads to a realistic oasis.
Balancing the stability of the world’s financial markets while keeping rogue nations in check is the moral initiative of the United States. Maintaining international standards of sovereign protocols is the mission statement of an alliance of free nations.
President Putin calls his people to a destiny that was, in its genesis, a false hope.
America is called to defend constitutional freedom as the world's only true hope.
By standing in the gates against those who would defy freedom, America is righteous in its participation of geopolitical denouement. For in these times of misguided expectations, only truth of transcendent purpose defended can result in liberty realized.
In this reality of freedom pursued and protected the leading characters of true individual rights must not be confused but focused on the imperative of eternal commitment to seeing our unalienable rights sustained for the generations.
Such commitment, therein, will allow the plot to be carried out to a logical conclusion.
My name is Marc Nuttle and this is what I believe.
What do you believe?